Forecast for Aurora Borealis: How to Predict and See the Northern Lights
By Triprz Editorial Team | October 15, 2026
How to read an aurora borealis forecast, the best apps and websites for northern lights predictions, and the top places to see them in 2026.
Tags: aurora borealis, northern lights, iceland, norway, alaska, space weather
Key Takeaways
- KP index 3+ visible in Scotland/Iceland; KP 6-7 visible across much of UK and northern US
- Negative Bz value + solar wind speed above 500 km/s = strong aurora likely
- Best apps: SpaceWeatherLive, My Aurora Forecast, NOAA SWPC, AuroraWatch UK
- Best spots: Tromsø, Iceland, Fairbanks AK, Yellowknife, Abisko Sweden
- 2025-2026 is solar maximum — strongest auroras in over a decade
Article
## How to Read an Aurora Borealis Forecast
The aurora borealis (northern lights) is caused by solar particles colliding with Earth's atmosphere. To predict when and where you can see them, you need to understand three key metrics:
### 1. KP Index (Planetary K-Index)
The KP index measures geomagnetic activity on a scale of 0–9:
| KP Index | Visibility |
|----------|-----------|
| 0–2 | Only far northern latitudes (northern Scandinavia) |
| 3 | Northern Scotland, Iceland, northern Canada |
| 4–5 | Southern Scotland, northern US states |
| 6–7 | Much of the UK, northern US, central Europe |
| 8–9 | Rarely visible as far south as Texas and Spain |
### 2. Bz (Magnetic Field Direction)
Solar wind has a magnetic field. When the Bz value is **negative (southward)**, auroras are more likely because the solar wind connects with Earth's magnetic field. Positive Bz means the aurora will likely stay weak.
### 3. Solar Wind Speed
Speeds above 500 km/s increase aurora chances. Speeds above 700 km/s often produce strong displays.
## Best Aurora Forecast Apps and Websites
1. **SpaceWeatherLive** (free app + website) — shows KP index, Bz, and solar wind speed in real time
2. **My Aurora Forecast** (free app) — push notifications when aurora is likely in your area
3. **NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center** — official US government forecasts
4. **AuroraWatch UK** — free email alerts for UK-based aurora watching
## Best Places to See the Northern Lights
| Location | Best Months | Light Pollution | Flight from US |
|----------|------------|-----------------|----------------|
| Tromsø, Norway | Oct–Mar | Very low | $600–$900 |
| Reykjavik, Iceland | Sep–Mar | Low | $300–$600 |
| Fairbanks, Alaska | Aug–Apr | Very low | $300–$500 |
| Yellowknife, Canada | Aug–Apr | Very low | $400–$700 |
| Abisko, Sweden | Oct–Mar | Extremely low | $600–$900 |
| Scottish Highlands | Oct–Mar | Low | $400–$700 |
## Tips for Seeing the Aurora
1. **Go between September and March** — you need dark skies, which means long nights
2. **Get away from city lights** — at least 30 km from any town
3. **Check the forecast at 6 PM local time** — aurora forecasts are most accurate 1–3 hours ahead
4. **Look north** — the aurora oval is centered on the magnetic north pole
5. **Be patient** — displays can last minutes or hours
6. **Use a tripod** — long exposures (10–30 seconds) at ISO 1600 capture the best photos
## 2026 Is a Great Year for Auroras
The sun is near **solar maximum** in 2025–2026, the peak of its 11-year cycle. This means more solar storms, stronger auroras, and more frequent displays at lower latitudes. If you've been waiting to see the northern lights, 2026 is one of the best years in a decade.
## Plan Your Aurora Trip With Triprz
- **[Cost Estimator](/estimator)**: Budget your trip to Iceland, Norway, or Alaska
- **[Flight Price Predictor](/flights)**: Check if flights to Reykjavik or Fairbanks are cheap right now
- **[Luggage Estimator](/luggage)**: Pack for sub-zero temperatures — get your bag weight right
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